Further write-ups to come for games after today!
For today’s bowl slate:
- ULL Ragin Cajuns (+1.5) over Nevada. I have this game modeled at about pick ’em, with a total of 60, until I factor in HFA; ULL -3 is my line
- Utah St. (-10) over UTEP, total 46. There’s no value in this line, but for confidence picks, I have USU pretty high. They’re the far better team. We’ll see who has this lined correctly, but I have this going wayyy over the total of 46.
- Utah (-2.5) over Colorado St. Just on coaching and talent alone, Utah would win this game 9/10 times, but CSU has real talent (All-American WR) and the program is solid. Utah should be too much, late, with their DL controlling the LOS.
- Western Michigan (-1.5) over Air Force. WMU has a 1.4 yards per play differential advantage in this game, which is as significant of a gap as almost any game. SOS adjusted, I have this at WMU -5, total of 56
- South Alabama (-2.5) over Bowling Green. I have this as S. Bama -6.5, enjoying a significant HFA, and a favorite by both weighted scoring margin, and my composite raw line models. Total of 56.
Enjoy & Good luck!
SOS: Strength of Schedule
HFA: Home Field Advantage
WR: wide receiver
DL: Defensive Line